Republic, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

302
FXUS63 KSGF 290218
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
918 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight
  into Sunday morning across the eastern Ozarks. Rainfall
  amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized heavier amounts of 4
  to 7 inches are expected east of a Lebanon to Gainesville line
  with an attendant risk for flash flooding.

- Another round of showers and storms will move through the
  region Sunday night into Monday. There is a Marginal (1 of 5)
  Risk for some of these storms to become severe.

- Some mild heat relief during the middle of next week following
  the frontal passage. 15-30% chances for isolated showers and
  thunderstorms will exist in southern Missouri near the front.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 835 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Confidence is increasing in a swath of heavy rainfall and
potential flash flooding across the eastern Ozarks from late
tonight into Sunday morning. Short term models have been
consistent in the development of a 20-30 knot low-level jet
nosing into southwestern Missouri overnight. This will induce
isentropic upglide, especially east of the Highway 65 corridor.
Inspection of short term thermo profiles indicates uncapped
parcels in the 950-850 mb layer with 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE
available. Thus, confidence is high (70-90%) that we will see
elevated convection develop across the eastern Ozarks, likely
starting in the 06-08Z time frame.

Given high convective coverage, we expect cold pools to congeal
with an MCS evolving with time. Corfidi vectors are only in the
5-10 knot range, thus this system will only slowly move to the
south with time resulting in increased residence time for heavy
rainfall. Other ingredients that are in place which support
heavy rainfall include precipitable water values approaching two
inches and increased warm rain processes given high thicknesses
between the freezing level and LCL. Thus, we are looking at
high rainfall rates (2-3" per hour) in conjunction with the
aforementioned residence times.

The new 00Z CAMs in conjunction with the 12Z NSSL MPAS output
all support a swath of 1-3" rainfall amounts generally east of a
Lebanon to Gainesville line. Localized amounts of 4-7" appear
likely where thunderstorms can train for a few hours. These
values align well with HREF max and LPMM output. These localized
amounts will result in a flash flooding risk that persists into
Sunday morning. A Flood Watch was posted earlier this evening
to cover this threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Showers and scattered thunderstorms continue across the eastern
Ozarks this afternoon east of Highway 65. This activity will
continue to slowly move east late this afternoon into early this
evening and should dissipated by sunset this evening. The
coverage in storms may decrease in the next few hours prior to
the showers fully ending. No severe weather is expected with
this activity as shear is weak and instability is more limited.
There is a low chance (<15%) for an isolated shower/storm along
and west of Highway 65 this afternoon but most locations should
remain dry through this evening as instability has decreased
behind the convection and lift has moved east of these
locations. The morning convection and clouds have kept the area
cool this afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 80s will
occur across much of the area. Muggy conditions will still occur
as dewpoints are in the 70s.

Tonight into Sunday morning MUCAPE will increase as the cap
weakens lift will over spread the area and additional showers
and storms are expected to develop. This activity will likely
be scattered in nature, but there is the potential for banding
of showers and storms to develop across portions of central
Missouri allowing multiple storms to track over the same
locations. Precipitable water values will be around 1.75 to 2"
leading to heavy rainfall rates with the storms. Any where
training of storms can develop heavy rainfall and a flash flood
risk will occur. These would be very localized and hard to pin
point exactly where training will exactly develop until the
convection develops. The CAMS are showing a signal for this
setting up shower were across central Missouri and the easterly
Ozarks. A quick 1 to 2" of rainfall will be possible with any
storm today, and where storms persist over the same locations
there is the potential for very localized amounts up to 4 to 6"
if training occurs over the same locations.

The convection should end by mid day on Sunday. If clouds clear
early enough in the day and instability can recover some
isolated storms would be possible late Sunday afternoon into the
evening. Coverage would not be widespread and these storms are
dependent on what occurs Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Additional storms are expected to develop north of the area
Sunday evening and develop into a complex and dive south into
and possibly through the area Sunday night into Monday morning.
An unstable air mass will be in place but shear will not be
overly strong. Exactly where the MCS tracks will be dependent on
where the convection develops. The instability would support the
complex of storms moving south into the area on MUCAPE gradient.
However, the weaker shear and the wind fields by become more
west to east time. It is possible a line of storms develop but
becomes more outflow dominate when it moves into the area. With
the wind flow the outflow boundary could move more south away
from the showers and storms as they move more east with time
Sunday night into Monday morning. There is an SPC Marginal
Severe Risk (1/5) for damaging winds Sunday night into early
Monday mainly across the northern portions of the area as the
storms may weaken more to the south if the outflow races off to
the south. There will also be the potential for heavy rainfall
and localized flooding. Depending on the morning convection
there could be the potential for afternoon and evening scattered
storms as a front moves through the area on Monday, but if the
outflow destabilized things enough it is also possible once the
morning convection pushes out there rest of the day will be dry.

A slightly less humid air mass will be in place across the area
Tuesday into Wednesday with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Humidity
values will then start to increase later in week as highs in the
upper 80s to around 90 return to the area. Isolated afternoon
and evening storms will be possible later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to linger
across the area early this evening. Coverage has remained
limited, with KBBG seeing the best chances through sunset. VFR
conditions through the remainder of the evening and part of
tonight before additional shower and thunderstorms chances
return early Sunday morning. MVFR to IFR flight conditions would
accompany this activity as a result of reduced ceilings and
visibilities. There remains some uncertainty with the extent of
coverage through Sunday afternoon. Light winds out of south-
southwest through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Sunday through Sunday afternoon for
     MOZ070-071-081>083-092-096>098-105-106.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Schaumann/Grout
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Perez